The Cyber Why: What We Read This Week...
... and why you should too! (2/23/24)
It’s been quite a start to 2024 for The Cyber Why. Our subscriber count is flying and views are popping. Thank you to all of you who recently joined the fray. This week in The Cyber Why, we discuss Palo’s BHAG and its run to 100B, a piece on the myth of cyber statistics, a pet peeve from Tyler about analyst firms, a ransomware group “found out,” and we take a stroll through the Microsoft graveyard! All that and more in this week’s The Cyber Why!
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I’m Not Dead Yet - Analyst Firms Live On
The News of the Death of Cybersecurity Analyst Firms is Greatly Exaggerated (Return on Security)
You might not know this, but all of the current authors at The Cyber Why are former industry analysts. Some of us are from Forrester, one from TAG Cyber, and one from 451 Research. We’ve been in the trenches of the analyst world for a combined four decades, either as buyers of analyst offerings or as analysts ourselves. In some ways, The Cyber Why is an extension of our analyst pedigree, albeit in a less formalized and more fun way. Based on that background, this article made me pay attention.
Much like the author, I’ve heard rumors that the concept of the traditional analyst firm was going away. I don’t believe this one bit. Gartner alone had over $5.5B in revenue last year, and that type of industry recognition and longevity will not die quickly. I agree with the concept that other community-based or individual approaches to influence and research are gaining steam. Still, I don’t believe these alternatives to top-tier research firms can create the nuanced and deeply researched arguments that current industry analyst customers require. Even a publication like this one, made up of former analysts, can’t possibly do the same depth of research and analysis that Forrester and Gartner achieve. At the end of the day, high-end, deep research firms will always have the ear of the buyer, and that’s not going to stop. So, let’s not put them out to pasture quite yet.
Mike is an amazing author - his article is a great read! Subscribe!
As a side note: Analysts are not “pay to play.” We have to stop perpetuating that myth. It’s just not reality concerning how analysts act. There is potential for conflict of interest in the analyst firm business model for sure, but let’s not go so far as to say analysts can be bribed. It’s not right or fair.
Rick’s note: Tyler might not be dead yet, but he is close.
Cybersecurity Stats are Not the Enemy. Humans Are.
Trust no one: why we can’t trust most stats about the cybersecurity industry, and why we must stop creating numbers out of thin air (Ross Haleliuk)
(Katie Pick) The cybersecurity industry loves data. Heck, I love data! I seek it out whenever I can. But over the years, I’ve grown skeptical of any published content featuring data. Why? Data is just numbers — very straightforward. Very clearcut. Not always interesting. Which is why data isn’t often published. Interpretations of data are.
In this article by Ross Haleliuk, the author explores:
How we got to a point where most “data” about the cybersecurity industry is inaccurate, biased, or incomplete due to data analysis techniques (a.k.a., data manipulation).
How various entities are likely to skew data and why.
Some possible ways to make data more reliable, realistic… and hopefully, useful.
Palo Alto Stock Dump - Buying Opp or Run Away?
Palo Alto Networks shares plunge after company cuts full-year billings, revenue guidance (CNBC)
Palo Alto Networks launches platform deals as it aims for cybersecurity share (Constellation Research)
Palo Alto Disrupts Itself, Again (CRN)
UH OH! Maybe we spoke too soon about the fantastic growth of Palo Alto Networks. This week, Nikesh and team announced earnings with a pretty big downward adjustment to forward-looking expectations. The market reacted immediately and dumped the stock's price by approximately 19% in after-hours trading. Since this isn’t an investment newsletter, you may wonder what caught our eye to elevate this to a top-five article. The answer lies in the specific guidance in the earnings announcement around the investment in AI.
In a conference call with analysts, CEO Nikesh Arora said the lowered guidance was due to a “shift” in strategy, “wanting to accelerate growth, our platform migration and consolidation and activating AI leadership,” adding that the company expected “a difficult customer” as the company shifted stance.
It appears that Palo will spend this year paying down integration tech debt, reworking their platform architecture to better position a unified dataset, and creating more robust AI and algorithmic overlays to provide better answers to complex questions in the cybersecurity realm. They are essentially dancing around our prediction in the article “The Next Era of Cyber Security Capabilities.”
I predict that PANW will become the first $200B market cap cybersecurity company by the end of 2025. I also got inspired and wrote a hot take piece on my position here: Palo Alto Networks - A Play For The Future.
Please note this is not financial advice - do your own due diligence.
Ransomware Group LockBit F’d Around And Found Out
International investigation disrupts the world’s most harmful cybercrime group (NCA)
Seized ransomware network LockBit rewired to expose hackers to world (Guardian)
(Rick Pick) The Brits and their global law enforcement partners (including the Feds) turned the tables on the infamous ransomware group LockBit this week. Law enforcement infiltrated LockBit's infrastructure, took control of their services, and compromised "their entire criminal enterprise." LockBit has been prolific. An estimated 2,000 victims paid out over $120 million in ransom demands last year. Operation Cronos is one of the most significant criminal takedowns in years and will cripple the group. But for how long? This op only had a handful of arrests. I suspect the remaining members will rebrand and form a new extortion crew like we commonly see. Affiliates could also shift to other Ransomware as a Service providers. As I often say, cybercrime finds a way. If I'm one of LockBit's affiliates or even a member of other groups like Alphv or Cl0p, I'd be worried - law enforcement has a bullseye on your back. Also, hat tip to whoever I saw on X use the F Around meme.
In remembrance Of Those Killed By Microsoft
I have to give a hat tip to Adrian on this one. He pointed the site out to me a week ago during our recording session for the Enterprise Security Weekly podcast. It turns out there is a Microsoft graveyard website that documents every technology that Microsoft has sent out to pasture and shipped to the glue factory. When I thumbed through the list, I must admit I shed a tear at a few of the dead technologies that have been destroyed over the years. RIP Windows Phone, the Zune, Encarta encyclopedia, Clippy (duh), and MS Bob!
Quick Hits and Hidden Gems
What is a normal burn rate for a startup (Kyle Poyar) - Burn rates are fluid. It makes me think that one might play an anti-strategy against burn rate to outflank competition. It’s worth pondering.
Judge rejects most ChatGPT copyright claims from book authors (ARS Technica) - A fascinating legal case to follow on copyright in the AI era.
Insider Intercepted In Fantasy Football Game (Forrester Blog) - As sports gambling grows this will become more of an issue. Good writeup JB! Rick note: He prefers to be called Joseph. amiright?
Nikesh Arora on Cramer RE: Palo Alto Dump (Mad Money) - Cramer is a loon, but this interview is excellent.
Trust no one: why we can't trust most stats about the cybersecurity industry, and why must stop creating numbers out of thin air (Venture In Security) - Ross is at it again. TCW author
loved this one!OpenAI unveils new text-to-video generator Sora (UPI.com) - You know it’s a good week for news when this one doesn’t make the top 5. Check out Sora. Sora is text to full motion video. It’s amazing. Actually, I’m going to break the quick hit rules.. Enjoy!
If you’ve made it this far, you either found our musings at least semi-entertaining, OR you enjoyed the pain and kept going regardless. No matter how you made it to this point, you should know that we appreciate you. Please do us a solid and share The Cyber Why with your friends. We would love to reach a bigger audience, and referrals are how we do it. Help us out, and we’ll see you next week!
Love the Microsoft Graveyard bit. And, street cred be damned, I owned a Zune for a while - and I liked it!